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Channel: Campaigns – David Farmer

Political actions give permission to haters

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The hatred and bigotry on display in Charlottesville and its aftermath are shocking to the system and, for most people, they create a straightforward choice between right and wrong.

White supremacy, Nazis, the Ku Klux Klan are wrong. Theirs is an ideology built upon hatred and destruction.

There are no “fine people” marching with swastikas; good people don’t support anti-Semitism; people of good faith can’t ignore the terrible legacy of slavery, Jim Crow, segregation and inequality.

Alt-right and white supremacists clash with counter protesters at a rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, on Aug. 12. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts/File Photo

Those should be the easy choices, but unfortunately for politicians like President Donald Trump and Gov. Paul LePage they aren’t.

Equivocation. Explanation. Ridiculous “what aboutism.” Even a rewriting of the history of the Civil War. No fact is safe with these guys.

Whether they know it or not – and I believe they know it – the language and deeds of too many in the political class empower the forces of hate.

A woman was murdered in Virginia. Two members of the Virginia State Police were killed in a helicopter crash while doing their jobs. People were beaten and maced.

We see it, and most people are repulsed.

But what we saw in the violent pictures, the protests and counter-protests and the stunned reaction of a country that thought itself better than this is the logical outcome of a generation of systematic oppression, political code words and policies purposefully aimed at marginalized populations.

Since Trump’s election last year, there’s been a resurgence of activity by the Ku Klux Klan in Maine. While it’s difficult to know how many people are actually involved, we do know that communities around the state have been targeted with hateful flyers, meant to intimidate and, possibly recruit.

Last week, a new batch of flyers turned up in Boothbay Harbor. While similar to the others, these added a new twist and specifically attacked transgender people.

I do work across the country for the American Civil Liberties Union fighting against discrimination and, particularly, attacks against transgender people. Just this month, a nasty special legislative session in Texas ended. The sole reason it was called was to attack, bully and marginalize transgender people.

The governor of Texas joined a long line of politicians hoping to gain political advantage by attacking transgender people.

It’s happening all over the country, including in Maine, where LePage inappropriately used the power of his office to join two different lawsuits trying to deny transgender people the ability to use the appropriate restroom.

Trump, anxious to keep his right-wing base engaged and enraged, joined the effort by announcing on Twitter – are you kidding me? – a new “policy” that would force transgender soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines out of the military.

All of these actions send a message to the fringe elements in our country. And those dangerous extremists – like the Ku Klux Klan – got the message loud and clear. It’s OK, they heard, to target transgender people. And, lo and behold, that’s the message that turned up in Boothbay Harbor on flyers from the hate group.

As terrible as the march in Charlottesville and the aftermath have been, as scary and disheartening as the rise of the alt-right is, as senseless as the deaths of Heather Heyer and Troopers H. Jay Cullen and Berk M.M. Bates, we should have seen it coming.

The haters have been paying attention. They’ve been listening. And they’ve gotten the message.

In political communications, we often talk about the importance of permission givers. When an influential voice – a trusted voice – sends out a message of approval or opposition, the people who like and believe them receive a strong cue about the appropriate way to respond. It’s why political endorsements still matter.

Here are the cues our country has been sending: In many states, the legislatures and governors have systematically and purposefully disenfranchised minority voters, purging election rolls and making it harder to participate.

Congressional districts have been gerrymandered and packed to reduce minority representation and ensure the electoral success of conservative politicians.

People of color, particularly immigrants, have been attacked and scapegoated, accused of carrying disease and committing crime.

Legislation has been introduced – honest to God – to decriminalize running over peaceful protesters with a car.

We have allowed poverty to be criminalized. People are being put in jail because they are too poor to pay a fine and low-income families are divided into the “deserving” and the so-called “able-bodied.”

All of this has happened with the force of law behind it. All of it has been built upon a foundation of lies.

If you are outraged at the resurgence of hate groups who feel empowered to openly march and put their hatred on display – and you should be – then it’s not enough to just oppose the most outwardly visible displays.

We must also stand against the policies and politicians who empower them, who give them the political permission to target people they say are different from them.

If you are disgusted by the white supremacists, save some of your anger and action for the policies that, while cloaked in “respectability,” seek the same outcome: To lock in place a system that keeps people of color, LGBT people, Native Americans and other minority populations from meaningful equality.


A year worth celebrating at Katahdin Woods and Waters

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Turning left down Penobscot Avenue in Millinocket on Friday, there were cars lining the street. Storefronts were open for business, and there were people strolling around.

Not so long ago, it would take a contentious public meeting at town hall to draw so many cars. But that’s in the past. There’s a new air about town.

People were lined up a couple deep at the office for the Katahdin Woods and Waters National Monument, as a volunteer patiently explained the best way to visit the property.

A split storefront, shared by Maine Heritage Timber and a brand new store, Woods & Waters Shop, was open and drawing shoppers. People were spending $20, $30, $40 or more for souvenirs.

My family and I were in town to celebrate the first birthday of the monument, which was designated on Aug. 24, 2016. There was a party planned for Friday night, and we decided to make it a weekend adventure.

Just the day before, US Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke delivered some promising – if not complete – news about the review of the monument he had undertaken at the request of President Donald Trump.

Katahdin would remain a national monument, managed by the National Park Service, Zinke said. He hinted that there might be some changes, but didn’t reveal a whole lot of details about what they might be other than to ensure folks that they would be happy with the decision.

Now, the recommendations are at the White House and in the hands of the president. While Katahdin Woods and Waters isn’t out of the woods yet, there’s at least reason to be optimistic.

Artist Marsha Donahue of Millinocket creates a painting of Mount Katahdin as she waits for U.S. Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke at Katahdin Woods and Waters National Monument in June. John Holyoke | BDN

We drove three cars up to the Katahdin region and invited friends of ours to join us. In the final tally, we spent two nights at the New England Outdoor Center, bought three tanks of gas, two fleece vests, a hoodie, two baseball caps and a jacket.

We stocked up on supplies at Hannaford and Ellis Family Market, including a cooler full of food and drinks for a picnic on Saturday at the overlook on the monument’s loop road.

The Friday night event was a fundraiser for the Friends of Katahdin Woods and Waters, which is a new non-profit that was created to support the monument and surrounding communities.

The event included some big name sponsors, including Patagonia and Maine Beer Co., which last year began brewing a special IPA called Woods and Waters to commemorate the new monument.

There was live music, great food and a list of speakers who talked about the monument and the difference that it has made in the community in just a year.

I’m biased on the monument. I worked with Elliotsville Plantation Inc., Lucas St. Clair and his family, playing a small part in making the case for the designation.

But in the process, I made lifelong friends in Millinocket, East Millinocket, Patten, Shin Pond, Lincoln, Mt. Chase and Matagamon.

Friday was like a reunion.

Here’s what I heard: There are still people who oppose the monument, but their numbers are waning. There are still “no” signs up, but they are fewer and further between. Meanwhile the support and the economic impact are continuing to grow.

In an OpEd in the Bangor Daily News, Richard Schmidt of Patten cataloged some of the positive changes in his community. Real estate sales have jumped since the monument was designated, going from $528,000 in the first five months of 2016 to $1.4 million in the four months right after.

The positive news is continuing in 2017, he reported, with sales topping $1 million again in the first five months of the year.

Businesses throughout the region are reporting spikes in visitation and so far between the National Park Service and the endowment created by Elliotsville Plantation, the foundation which donated the land for the monument plus an endowment of $20 million, about a half a million dollars have been invested in the region so far.

Those are real dollars putting Mainers to work and helping to grow the economy.

On Saturday, we drove up Route 11 and into the monument. We visited the East Branch of the Penobscot River, where friends were canoeing and then onto the loop road for lunch.

The trip into the monument is just enough of an adventure out on old logging roads to give that school carpool mini-van a workout and to cover it in dust.

We saw cars from Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New York and South Carolina. There were several families at the overlook eating, taking pictures and enjoying the majesty of Mount Katahdin.

On Sunday morning, we reluctantly packed up to head back home. Leaving, we turned right on Penobscot Avenue. Again, cars lined the street. We parked and headed to the Appalachian Trail Café. It was packed. People were lined up outside to get in.

My advice. Make your plans to visit now for the fall. People are coming.

And, if you’re already thinking about where you want to be for the next eclipse in 2024, I have a suggestion. For me, it’s in the shadow of moon and Katahdin.

 

Health care revolution within reach (minus the revolution part)

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Maine is so close.

Despite the best efforts of Gov. Paul LePage, his Department of Health and Human Services and his acolytes in the Maine House of Representatives, a major achievement is within reach.

While all political eyes last week were focused on the rollout of Medicare for All by Sen. Bernie Sanders, there was other health care news.

According to the US Census Bureau, Maine’s uninsured rate is stuck stubbornly at about 8 percent. That means 106,000 people in Maine lack health insurance.

It’s a number that’s way too high.

The number of people without insurance has dropped across the country since the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, and it’s dropped faster and farther in the 31 states that have expanded Medicaid. The uninsured rate in states that have expanded is down to 6.5 percent, compared to 11.7 percent for states that didn’t expand.

Andrew MacLean, deputy executive vice president of the Maine Medical Association, voices his organization’s support for Medicaid expansion in 2014. Mario Moretto | BDN

This November, Question 2 will ask Mainer voters if they want to expand Medicaid to cover 70,000 people in the state. I’m working on that campaign and am a longtime supporter of Medicaid expansion.

If the Census estimates are correct, Question 2 could bring Maine within 36,000 people of a major health care accomplishment: universal coverage.

Universal coverage is often conflated with the idea of a single-payer health care system, such as Medicare for All. But the two things aren’t the same.

Universal coverage is the goal of making sure that everyone has access to affordable health care coverage. Single-payer is one way that the health care system can be structured to achieve universal coverage.

With new leadership in Augusta just a year away, Medicaid expansion puts us within striking distance of universal coverage and would position Maine to innovate around health care coverage to achieve the goal.

No doubt that the remaining 36,000 people without health insurance coverage are some of the most challenging people to reach, and there are real problems with some elements of the Affordable Care Act, which have kept insurance premiums too expensive for some families.

Medicare for All or other single-payer options are a worthwhile goal, particularly on the national level. So far, they have been impractical on the state level. Both Vermont and California have tried, without much success so far.

The biggest hurdle to overcome for the single-payer is real. In addition to reordering about one-sixth of the country’s economy and overcoming the initial sticker shock for the cost, more than 155 million Americans under the age of 65 receive their health care coverage through their employer.

Medicare for All would upend that system. For those families, Medicare for All would require a huge leap of faith.

In addition, the change in health care delivery would have real consequences. While jobs would surely be created inside the Medicare program, Medicare for All would be extremely disruptive for private insurance companies.

That’s not a reason to oppose the idea, but any serious discussion of this type of single-payer reform has to account for the thousands of jobs that would be lost or re-ordered.

Maine has seen this before with the downsizing of our forest products industry. While there are real frustrations with the insurance industry and the way it makes its profits, there’s no question that there are real people – our friends and neighbors – who work for those companies and who would face an uncertain employment future.

Medicare for All makes sense, particularly if you were able to go back in time and remake our health care system from scratch. But supporters of the idea should not underestimate the legitimate concerns of the switch, and the real fears it will create for millions of Americans.

In the meantime, we shouldn’t forestall real progress. (And we should continue to oppose the efforts in Washington to undermine the Affordable Care Act and take insurance away from millions of people.)

We have the chance to lower the uninsured rate to less than 3 percent in Maine. And with a new administration in Augusta determined to improve health care coverage instead of stand in its way, we could work on solutions to close that gap and make coverage more affordable for people who buy coverage on the private market.

Voters last year showed an appetite for big, bold ideas. Medicare for All certainly fits that bill.

But we have a real chance to make progress right now – to make our health care system more fair and our economy stronger – and to put universal coverage at the tip of our fingers.

Big and bold may be beautiful. But I have a soft spot in my heart for raging incrementalism – and universal coverage.

When Trump connects to the sins of the past, we should listen

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We are killing young black men.

We are killing them on the streets, and we’re killing them with games.

When they tell us there’s systematic and persistent racism, that they’re afraid for their sons, we should listen.

We’re killing Native Americans.

We’re abandoning them to poverty, isolation and early death.

When they tell us that our mascots demean and dishonor their culture and our rules lock them out of opportunity and desecrate their sacred places, we need to listen.

We’re killing women, betrayed by a culture of violence and a society that still turns its eyes away from abusive, violent and armed men. When they tell us about their daily fears, we need to listen.

We’re killing gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender peopleespecially transgender people of color. When they seek basic human dignity and respect, we need to listen.

President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally for Sen. Luther Strange in Huntsville, Alabama, on Sept. 22. REUTERS/Aaron P. Bernstein

We’re killing immigrants and refugees, abandoning them to camps far away from home and wrongly blaming them for disease and crime. When they ask for a moment’s reprieve, we need to listen.

When people tell us they’re hurting, when they speak on bended knee to get our attention to the problems they see and feel, we need to listen.

We’re killing middle age white men, too. We’re leaving them behind, to bad health and lack of opportunity, particularly in rural areas. But when they tell us about their struggles and their frustrations, we see our own faces and the faces of our fathers. And we do listen.

Sometimes, the worst among us hear them all to well, and take their frustration and anger and try to turn them against the “others.” When we hear that, we need to listen. And we need to stand against it.

It was echo of the stinging voice of Alabama Gov. George Wallace that I heard in Alabama last week.

The speaker was President Donald Trump, but his words carried themes from the not-so-distant and ugly past.

He attacked football players who silently and peacefully protest racial injustice, calling them names and urging NFL owners to fire the SOBs. He dismissed brain injury and concussions. And he set the emotions of the mostly white crowd against the mostly black men who play professional football.

It was a speech built on the idea of racial division and of black men being taught their place. Ungrateful became the new uppity.

The words were from the current president, but the ideas were from 1963.

In Wallace’s inaugural address delivered that year in the state house, the racist governor invoked Robert E. Lee and Jefferson Davis in a speech that will forever be remembered for a single line: “Segregation now … Segregation tomorrow … Segregation forever.”

But there was more to Wallace’s speech than the oath of fealty to a hateful and bigoted doctrine of segregation. He attacked judges, described Alabama as the “Cradle of the Confederacy, this very Heart of the Great Anglo-Saxon Southland” and talked about the “race of honor” rejecting federal tyranny, which was actually an effort to break Jim Crow.

And he spoke of the persecution of the “international white minority” and the dangers faced by the country if it were to become a “mongrel unit of one.” He called the 14th Amendment, which guarantees equal protection under the law, illegal.

“My pledge to you,” Wallace finished, “Stand up for Alabama.” We need to listen.

In Alabama last week, Trump continued on his campaign pledge to “Make America Great Again.” The reverberations of 1963 were hard not to hear. We need to listen.

Later in his life, confined to a wheelchair after a failed assassination attempt during a run for president, Wallace apologized for his defense of segregation, for standing in the schoolhouse door in an attempt to keep black students out of the University of Alabama, and denounced the violence that left protesters battered and four black girls dead from a terrorist bombing of their church.

He sought forgiveness and public rehabilitation. Maybe he was sincere. The suffering from his paralysis and the pain he caused to countless others – the terror and inequality he nurtured – perhaps opened his eyes.

Maybe one day in the future, Trump too will recognize the damage of his words and deeds. Maybe he’ll see that he is empowering white supremacists and appealing to the worst of human nature. Maybe he’ll seek forgiveness and even mean it.

But like Wallace’s legacy, the hurt will be hard to undo.

For now, the rest of us need to listen. We need to hear what’s being said and see what’s happening. And we need to do our parts to make it better, to empower our better angels and to empathize with our fellow Americans.

Internal memo shows Collins in commanding position in GOP primary for governor

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An internal memo for Sen. Susan Collins, that I obtained and confirmed as authentic, shows that Maine’s senior senator remains overwhelmingly popular and holds a commanding lead in any potential gubernatorial match-up.

The memo, which was produced by Collins’ pollster Hans Kaiser based on statewide polling conducted Sept. 17-21, shows 70 percent of Maine voters have a favorable opinion of the senator, compared to just 21 percent who view her unfavorably.

Collins’ job approval numbers are even higher. Seventy-five percent of Mainers say they approve of the job she’s doing, while just 19 percent disapprove. Five percent say they don’t know (I have to wonder who the heck these people are). Job approval numbers are often a predictor of electoral support.

The poll comes as one of the biggest political questions in the state goes unanswered: Will Collins leave the US Senate, where she is a powerful and pivotal player, to run for governor. Collins has said that she will announce her decision next week.

I’ve been, and remain, skeptical that Collins would trade Washington for Augusta, but the new polling information circulating in both DC and Maine suggests she is seriously considering it – and frankly would have little trouble dispatching opponents in a Republican primary, despite speculation to the contrary.

Sen. Susan Collins. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas

During one of his regular appearances on talk radio, Republican Gov. Paul LePage gave his political analysis of Collins’ standing in the Republican Party. “I will say this right away. I do firmly believe deep down in my heart that Susan Collins, in order to become the governor of the state of Maine, will have to run as an independent, and she’s highly unlike to win a Republican primary.”

That doesn’t appear to be true.

According to the Kaiser memo, Collins’ job approval numbers are above 60 percent for Republicans, Democrats and independents. While her support among Democrats and independents wouldn’t help her in a Republican primary, she appears to be in the catbird seat there as well.

“Should Susan decide to run for governor these numbers show her in a very solid position as she leads her next closest competitor in the Republican primary by a better than 3:1 margin and two other competitors by even larger margins.”

I have not seen the actual poll results, but the authenticity of the data has been confirmed by someone who has seen the poll. That person also described the head-to-head match-ups in more detail.

Collins obliterates the Republican field out of the gate. Former Department of Health and Human Services Commissioner Mary Mayhew is a distant second with a negative favorability rating. Other Republican contenders are essentially unknown.

The poll also tested Collins in a general election matchup against at least one Democrat. From my perspective, the news there isn’t good. She has a commanding lead. (I’m supporting Democratic candidate Jim Boyle, and consider most of the people running for the Democratic nomination friends. The poll did not test Boyle, I’m told.)

According to the memo, Collins starts above 50 percent in head-to-head ballot tests in the general, a critical benchmark for any candidate.

“These number show Susan Collins in a very strong position among voters in Maine, one that transcends party lines and demonstrates a great appreciation for the job she is doing in the US Senate. Should she decide to run for governor these numbers suggest she would be extremely difficult to beat,” the memo said

Collins appears to be unscathed by LePage’s attacksincluding an email to Maine Republicans – and by critical remarks from Republican US Rep. Bruce Poliquin, recorded at a closed-door GOP event.

The poll also shows, according to the person who has seen it but asked to remain unidentified because they haven’t been cleared to talk about the information, in a potential match up between Maine’s other US senator, Angus King, and LePage, King holds a commanding lead, with more than 60 percent of voters backing the independent.

Voters, it appears, side with King and Collins, not LePage.

Statewide research of this nature isn’t cheap. A 500-person sample, using live callers and a cellphone supplement, can easily cost $30,000, and depending upon the length could climb to $50,000 to $60,000. Memos like this one are often produced for donors as a way to solicit contributions and demonstrate a candidate’s viability.

I can’t remember a time when Collins has released internal polling before, so it seems unlikely these numbers will be put out to the general public, but the fact that the poll was done at all suggests that Collins is seriously considering a run.

It’s early and polling isn’t predictive. It’s a snapshot in time. But if Collins decides to stay in the US Senate, fear of a Republican gubernatorial primary doesn’t appear to be the reason.

The poll suggests Maine Republicans aren’t as extreme as LePage believes, and others fear.

 

Only one remedy for LePage’s threats to sheriffs — impeachment

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Gov. Paul LePage – much like his counterpart in the White House – consistently violates the norms of governance.

His disregard for the law and for civil, appropriate behavior are dangerous. The Legislature has reacted by contorting itself into a legalistic pretzel.

The governor’s recent threats to depose sheriffs based on his flawed interpretation of the law and the Maine Constitution are the latest example. He wants to remove the sheriffs because he thinks they should illegally hold people in jail.

And now a state lawmaker has stepped up to try to change the constitution because the governor fails to recognize the norms of governance that would constrain most decent people.

Simply put, it would be an abuse of power for the governor to attempt to remove a sheriff from office – to turn over the results of an election – over a political dispute.

Gov. Paul LePage

The remedy, however, is not to change the constitution of the state. The remedy would be to impeach the governor.

Maine’s form of government is built upon a balance of power between the three branches, a system of checks and balances and governing norms. Taken together, they set the limits on the power of government actors.

The constitutional provision that allows the governor to remove a sheriff is part of the safeguards built into state government to protect us all.

A sheriff bent on abusing his or her authority or violating the law could have a terrible impact on the people of the state. The power to arrest and imprison someone carries an awesome responsibility and the power to hold a sheriff accountable is an important safeguard to protect democracy.

For an example, consider Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who was recently pardoned by President Donald Trump. Arpaio is a criminal who abused his authority and a dangerous man who belongs behind bars for the way he targeted people of color for illegal treatment.

If Maine were to wake up tomorrow with our own Arpaio, we would want a mechanism to hold him accountable and to remove him from office.

The Maine Constitution vests the executive branch and the judicial branch with the power to place a check on sheriffs.

But the writers of the constitution could not have predicted the rise of a governor who willfully dismisses the voice of voters, who pushes the boundaries of the law, who abuses his authority and who searches for ways to push the boundaries of appropriate behavior.

LePage glady ignores the norms that hold the behavior of most elected leaders in check. And he does it to the cheers of his supporters, who appear ready to defend him regardless of what words he utters or actions he takes.

The governor has used the power of his office to have a political rival fired. He’s threatened a lawmaker, made racist statements, covered up misdeeds in his administration, refused to issue bonds and tried to circumvent the constitution around vetoes.

He ignores law that requires permanent commissioners to be appointed, subverting the Legislature’s role in vetting nominees for cabinet positions.

He essentially does whatever he pleases and dares the other branches of government – or frankly, everyone – to stop him if they can.

His unlawful threats against sheriffs is just the latest example of LePage’s brand of “imperial governorship,” to riff off the famous political science text, “The Imperial Presidency,” which was written by Arthur Schlesinger Jr.

In an imperial presidency, the president uses power beyond what is specifically granted by the constitution and laws and seeks to undermine or overwhelm the checks and balances and balance of power, which were put in place to limit presidential authority. The same description works for a governor.

With divided government in the Legislature and term limits, the power of the legislative branch has been weakened. They don’t have the staff, resources or expertise to match the power of the governor and the more than 10,000 executive branch employees at his disposal.

So they are left with two choices. They chase after the governor, trying to clean up his messes and block his worst abuses while trying to carry on a semblance of reasonable governance, the current, less than successful path.

Or they use the power vested in the Legislature to impeach the governor and remove him from office.

There have been many calls for the governor to be removed from office for his various misdeeds. And with just over a year left in his term, some people might argue that it’s too late to do anything about his actions. He is, after all, the lamest of lame ducks.

But I disagree.

If the governor attempts to remove a sheriff from office then the Legislature has one choice. The members must use the constitutional power they have been granted to throw the brakes on the governor’s actions. He needs to be impeached.

To do less – to allow a sheriff to be bullied and then removed for no legitimate reason – would put democracy at risk and cause lasting damage to the checks and balances that prevent a governor from using the awesome power of the office for ill.

 

Collins shows the power of her brand of politics

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Sen. Susan Collins taught a master class last week in how to dominate and control a narrative.

With a decision that seems obvious in hindsight – but had much of the country and the entire state guessing in real time – Collins made the decision to stay in the Senate and not run for governor in 2018.

Of course she did.

Sen. Susan Collins announced she would not run for governor in 2018 at the Penobscot Bay Regional Chamber of Commerce’s Quarterly Business Breakfast in Rockport, on Oct. 13. REUTERS/Joel Page

She’s one of the most influential and popular politicians in the country. Her colleagues were begging her to stay. Her recent actions around health care earned her spontaneous applause at the airport.

She’s lauded as a sane voice in the swamp that is DC.

Had she decided to run, her internal polling showed her in a strong position in any Republican primary field.

Some political soothsayers point to other polling that showed her in trouble in a Republican primary. And no less authority on all things that are likely fictional – and possibly outright liesGov. Paul LePage doubted her chances among Republicans.

The show from last week, however, tells me how wrong all of that is.

Look, it pains me to say it. When reporters asked me what I thought Collins would do, “retire,” I joked. I’m a Democrat. Collins has been a champion on health care, but in my eyes her record is decidedly mixed. She is a Republican after all, and it’s a hard place to be as a Democrat to depend on Republicans to do what we think is right.

But here’s what Collins managed. She carefully managed her decision to draw the press – state and national – to the coast of Maine where she delivered a long health care policy speech while the cameras all rolled live. She made us wait and listen and watch.

Just the notion she might run had kept the Republican field small with no real frontrunner and delayed the entry of at least one biggish name, state Senate President Mike Thibodeau. With Collins out, the field may grow still larger.

Every eye was on Collins. Every camera turned her way. Talk radio was talking about it. Pop radio was talking about it. It was a nonpartisan, all-partisan affair.

And she did this – dominated the news for days and days – without saying something outrageous, without attacking anyone, without telling a lie.

Her star already bright, it has become even brighter because she represents the anti-Trump, the anti-LePage in the Republican Party. She’s the alternative, the old school Yankee Republican at a time when a whole bunch of folks are hungry for dealmakers instead of bomb throwers.

But there’s more to it than that.

If Collins had decided to run for governor, she could have stayed in the Senate for the duration of the campaign, giving her a national and nightly platform to make her case.

She already commands coverage whenever she wants it. Imagine if she decided she wanted it every day. She can insert herself into every discussion happening in Washington and likely be a pivotal vote, a standout voice.

While political insiders and reporters may recognize the Thibodeaus, Fredettes, Masons and Mayhews in the primary, the gap between Collins, who is universally known, and the other candidates in the primary is tremendous.

Frankly, it would cost any of them hundreds of thousands of dollars – maybe more – just to get people to recognize their names.

And, had Collins been in the race, that money would have been a lot harder to come by. With her position in the US Senate secure, even with a loss, until 2020, Republican funders would have thought twice about aligning against Maine’s most popular Republican. The money would have flowed to her campaign.

Plus Collins has a carefully managed relationship with the press and positive coverage that would be hard for the other Republicans to match.

I’m working for a Democrat, Jim Boyle, who’s running for governor. I think he’s the best person for the job against all comers. But I can say without bias that Collins is a more formidable opponent than anyone else currently in the Republican field.

Collins has supported the Republican Party in Maine. She’s raised money for it and down-ballot candidates. And even endorsed her new nemesis, LePage. After all these years – and with a 70 percent favorability rating and 75 job approval rating across all voters – I find it hard to believe that all of a sudden Republican voters would have turned their back on her.

Maybe. But I doubt it. And after what I saw last week, what we all saw — admit it, if you’re reading a political column, you were glued to the computer or the TV to find out what she was going to do – she would have crushed the primary field.

Maine voters call the bet on casino gamble

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Question 1 – the casino question – is all about the Benjamins.

Never mind the attacks and the dodgy language and the financial shenanigans that have prompted two investigations into the dealings of people and corporations behind the referendum question.

And pay no attention to the claims of new jobs, boosts in spending for education and support for veterans. They even say “everybody wins,” which certainly sounds like something a gambling hall or carnival barker might say.

The truth of Question 1 is much simpler.

A person signs a petition that is related to “An Act to Allow Slot Machines or a Casino in York County.” Micky Bedell | BDN

Question 1 on the statewide ballot is all about money. It’s a huge bet by some very rich people that by spending several millions dollars in Maine they can make a huge profit.

It’s a roll of the dice, with a prayer for a big payout. But it’s not crazy. It’s worked before, with the Bangor casino.

Shawn Scott – the only person who can benefit from Question 1 if it passes – has placed a high stakes bet that with enough money and the right words, voters can be convinced to allow a third casino in the state, this one in York County.

The potential payoff for Scott is huge. And frankly, the odds for success are probably a lot higher than they would be for the people who find themselves gambling away their paycheck at the new casino. The house always wins there, you know.

According to the Bangor Daily News and Maine Public, Scott and his network have spent about $6 million on Question 1 – about $4.3 million to get it on the ballot and the rest on the campaign. That total is likely to increase.

But the jackpot is huge: The gambling license at stake could be worth $200 million. The last time Scott made this play, in Bangor, it netted a reported $51 million.

The whole thing feels dirty. Like a scam. Like the dice are loaded and the cards are marked.

But unlike inside a casino, this time the house doesn’t control the odds. It’s up to voters to decide whether they will reward untoward behavior and allow our electoral system to be played like cheap parlor game.

I voted “no” on Question 1. While I don’t think anyone can dispute the generally positive impact the casino in Bangor has had on redevelopment and investment, gambling is a shaky foundation on which to build an economy.

If we are going to allow more gambling in Maine – and there’s already plenty – then it should be done thoughtfully and in a way that doesn’t allow the system to be manipulated by rich guys looking to make a quick hundred million or so.

It’s not often that I agree with Gov. Paul LePage. But on the casino ballot question, he’s right (that actually stings a little to write): “[T]he person who wrote the legislation or his companies are the only legal entities that can apply for the gambling license. This gambling initiative is not an open or fair process.”

The campaign has been marked by personal attacks and conspiracy theories that are unusual for ballot initiatives.

For the most part, attacking the people who support or oppose a ballot initiative doesn’t usually move voters. Claiming broad – and comical – conspiracies involving lobbyists, reporters and who knows who else, as the Yes on 1 camps has done, seems doomed to fail, even during a time when there is skepticism about just about everything and everyone.

Supporters of the casino have been tyrannical in attacking almost anyone who has questioned their proposal, particularly in social media and on Twitter.

The opposition runs a website, www.wickedshady.com, that’s focused on Scott. It’s an oppo dump to make him unacceptable, for sure. Instead of focusing on the casino question and the cons of allowing a third one in the state, the website is dedicated to turning Scott into a villain. It’s unusual on a ballot initiative for both sides to be so focused on individuals instead of the issue at hand.

It’s easy to understand the play here for Scott. Put $6 million and counting on the table and if the cards come up right, it pays off $33 to $1.

But this time, it’s not the house spinning the wheel or dealing the cards. It’s Maine voters. They’re in control and get to set the odds.

And when the media in the Bangor Daily News and the Portland Press Herald agree with LePage, then I have to believe the odds are stacked against Scott and his play to cash in on the backs of Maine voters.

 


GOP tax scheme fails the straight face test

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The greatest trick that Republicans ever pulled was convincing people that they might pay the estate tax.

It’s a lie. Point blank and simple.

Very few people pay the estate tax, and the folks who do are extremely wealthy.

They are not small business owners and family farmers.

According to the Tax Policy Center, in the entire country there are only an estimated 80 small farms and businesses that will pay any estate tax in 2017.

Current law exempts estates valued at less than $5.49 million from the levy. It’s not a small business if it’s valued at more than $5.49 million. Most of us don’t even know someone with that kind of money.

Yet the GOP is trying to convince us that doubling the estate exemption to $11.2 million in 2018 and then eliminating it is doing all of us a favor. Like the lottery says, “dream a little, dream a lot.”

Keep dreaming.

President Donald Trump kisses a printed example of what a new tax form may look like during a meeting on tax policy with Republican lawmakers in the Cabinet Room of the White House on Nov. 2. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

When President Donald Trump gives a speech and claims that truck drivers and other small business people will pay the estate tax he’s lying.

Last week, Republicans in Washington released the details of a plan to change the tax code. They like to call it “reform,” but a better description would be a massive shift toward wealthy Americans and a few modest proposals thrown in for the everyone else.

The biggest winners are corporations, which will see their tax rate cut from 35 percent to 20 percent, and the super-rich, the Washington Post found.

When you think about tax reform, is the first thing that comes to your mind, boy Apple, Google, Walmart and Exxon Mobil pay too much in taxes? Me neither.

In fact, most people believe that corporations already aren’t paying their fair share when it comes to taxes. An ABC News/Washington Post poll in September found that 65 percent of Americans say that large corporations pay too little in taxes.

It’s like congressional Republicans saw those results and figured, what the hell, Trump’s approval ratings are already in toilet, so what do we have to lose.

According to latest ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday, Trump’s approval rating is 37 percent, the lowest of any president at this point in his term in 70 years of presidential polling.

With numbers that low, there’s not much to lose – you know, besides the US House of Representatives, the US Senate and legislative races all across the country.

The Republican tax plan, if it passes, would be a $1.5 trillion giveaway to corporations; cut $172 billion for super-rich people with estates valued at more than $5.49 million; and hand many of those same wealthy people $696 billion by eliminating the Alternative Minimum Tax.

The AMT was created by Congress as a way to make sure wealthy taxpayers don’t manipulate loopholes to avoid paying taxes on their earnings.

There are other changes in the law that would also hurt. For example, it eliminates the ability to deduct local and state taxes and caps the deduction for property taxes.

The politics behind this change are easy to read. Blue states tend to have higher state and local tax burdens. Imagine that: Punishing Democratic leaning states with higher taxes.

Already, there’s opposition, even among some natural conservative constituencies. The National Federation of Independent Business, a very conservative lobbying organization, says it opposes the changes, as do home builders and a lot of nonprofits, which worry that it would crimp charitable giving.

Even some Republicans in Congress are already opposed.

I guess nobody knew that tax policy could be so complicated. Turns out it’s an unbelievably complex subject.

With their failed efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Republicans faced the hard truth that they were trying to take health care away from more than 30 million Americans. People didn’t like that.

Now they trying to give $1.5 trillion away – largely with deficit spending – and they’re already fraying despite controlling the White House, the House and Senate.

Republicans have mastered elections. They basically run it all right now.

But when it comes to actually governing, the complexities of moving beyond talking points and divisive rhetoric seems to have them befuddled.

When they’re campaigning, it seems, they’ve been able to suspend the truth, the facts and even math.

But running the country is different than running your mouth in a 30-second campaign ad.

With the lesson unlearned by the health care debacle, Republicans are trying again with taxes. But to be successful, they have to convince a skeptical public that up is down, black is white and that we’re all just a pay raise away from owing the estate tax.

That doesn’t seem likely.

Lame ducks quack loudest after defeat

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I know why the lame duck quacks.

The sun is setting on Gov. Paul LePage. He is in the twilight of his administration and he’s making plenty of noise to mark the beginning of that end.

When he was elected, there was talk on the right that he would remake the state and remake politics, revitalize the Republican Party like Ed Muskie had done for Democrats.

Paul LePage is no Ed Muskie. Not even close.

Gov. Paul LePage

But it is true, that at least for a time, LePage has remade politics in the state in his own image: coarse, cheap, fact-adverse and belligerent.

He’s operated on the principle that division is addition. And, for his two elections, it worked.

He won re-election and in a divided government, he and his loyalists – not sure what else to call most of the members of the Republican House caucus – have tied the state and the government in knots.

Instead of the revolution that was promised, they have delivered stasis. Instead of drowning state government in a bathtub, it’s bigger today than it ever was under those “big spenders” John Baldacci and Angus King. In the most recent budget, Democrats won one of the largest increases in education funding ever – and the two-year budget surpassed $7.1 billion.

Some voters may like the governor’s hateful rhetoric and damn-the-torpedoes attitude. But they profoundly don’t like his policies.

With a few exceptions, they have gone to the polls and rejected his biggest ideas, enacting progressive policies such as the minimum wage, increased education funding, ranked-choice voting, progressive taxation on the wealthy and Medicaid expansion. They vetoed his repeal of same-day voter registration and were the first voters in the country to pass a law allowing all loving, committed couples to marry.

Yes, it’s true, with a Maine GOP House in the grasp of his cronies and the power and weight of the executive office, the governor has been able to do some damage to these big wins.

But when voters reject your ideas, your lies and scare tactics that you and your rich friends were selling and instead vote to expand Medicaid – your biggest boogeyman – by almost 20 points, it should be a clear message that your time is nigh.

Meanwhile, the governor’s own initiatives failed to make the ballot, not able to gain the required number of signatures.

I’ve worked on a number of these ballot initiatives, including Medicaid expansion this year, and I worked on US Rep. Mike Michaud’s unsuccessful campaign for governor. I am completely biased against LePage. I won’t even pretend to be a neutral observer.

But the calendar and the vote count don’t lie.

LePage has spent the last seven years trying to take health care away from people. He’s blocked more than 70,000 folks from getting care, despite the fact that the expansion of Medicaid comes with relatively little cost to the state considering its benefits. He’s taken health care away from tens of thousands more.

Now the governor says he will block the implementation of Medicaid expansion. Ultimately, he will be unsuccessful. No governor, not even LePage, is above the law or the Constitution. He simply does not have the power to pick and choose which laws he will enforce.

The truth, however, is that he might be able to delay implementation by forcing a court fight.

But the delay will be short lived.

With the majority of Republican leadership in the House and Senate seeking higher office, their attention has already turned to their own electoral future. With every day, they become less concerned with the flapping of a lame duck governor.

That doesn’t mean, of course, that they’ll all of a sudden come to their senses and be reasonable, compassionate leaders. Fat chance of that.

But they are going to have to start separating themselves from one another. And while some of them will surely break hard to the right to capture the Trump-LePage vote in the primary, there might open up a lane for a Republican who decides to be merely conservative instead of radical, bigoted and crazy.

The media is fixated on the Trumpians and their power. But again, math prevails. If too many Republicans slice away at the right-wing pie, maybe, just maybe, mainstream Republicans will have a chance.

Perhaps it’s wishful thinking. Government works best when the two major political parties are at least functional. Right now, the Republicans seem tugged between reason and a high fever of resentment. Who knows if that fever will break or if the entire Republican Party will succumb?

Regardless of the future of the Republican Party, the shadow of LePage will only grow more faint.

Very soon, Republicans are going to have to make a choice about the future of their party, one without LePage as governor.

Of course, that, in and of itself, isn’t enough to ensure that Democrats will be successful. We seem to be perfectly content to form a circular firing squad.

Today, I’m just going to celebrate the fact that the governor’s lies and distortions didn’t work in last week’s election and that voters made clear that they want more health care, not less.





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